[TML] [OT] One for Gun Safty

[shadow at shadowgard.com]

On 13 Oct 2007 at 10:29, Shawn Wilson wrote:

>   BTW hysteria aside, no we will *never* run out.  Economies don't
> work that way.  Rising extraction costs cause a gradual transition
> to the next cheaper alternative.  There is never a discontinuity. 
> (this is rather important, capitalism makes anticipated
> discontinuities impossible, any anticipated effects are fully
> amortized in the present) 

Only if the rising cost is planned for. Ask anyboduy who lived thru 
the "gas crunch" when oil prices jumped back in the 70s.

We've also got a *major* conversion problem if we have to switch to 
another fuel. Because there's apt to be a "tipping point" where 
suddenly a *lot* of folks want to change, and there will be a backlog 
doing conversions (and likely a scarcity of places *selling* the 
"new" fuel).

>   Well, in that we literally have *forever*...
    
>   Gasoline is, believe it or not, a renewable resource.  We
> currently make it from petroleum because petroleum is cheap.  After
> petroleum becomes too expensive to be worth extracting we have
> waiting in the wings oil sands, tar shales, coal, methane ices, and
> just making gas directly from organic waste.  The worst case
> scenario is gas costing $4.25 a gallon, which is the real world
> price of making it from garbage and selling it retail. 

That may be the price for small amounts. The price for producing the 
amounts we use now are apt to be a lot higher, if only because lack 
of suuficient *cheap* "feedstock" for the procress.


--
Leonard Erickson (aka shadow)
shadow at shadowgard dot com