[TML] correlation is not causation (was Propagation times for news services in Imperium)

[Andrew Long]

On 30 Mar 2008, at 18:59, shadow at shadowgard.com wrote:
> On 30 Mar 2008 at 1:03, Ross Winn wrote:
>
>> "correlation is not causation" --Adrienne Winn, 2003
>
> It's *much* older than that.
>
> A common example of this are the folks going on about the fact that
> people who carry guns or knives are more apt to get shot or stabbed.
> You mostly see it used to "prove" that doing so is dangerous.
>
> I'm sure that there are folks who think a weapon is a magic wand and
> get intoi trouble they wouldn't if they weren't carrying.
>
> But I'm willing to bet that a more frequent case is where te person
> is carrying because they are already at great risk of being attacked.
> In which case the causation is exactly *backwards* from what most
> folks who point out that statistic are claiming.
>
>
Oh, if only British politicians were reading this list!

Regards, Andy
-- 
Andrew Long
andrew dot long at mac dot com